"find people who are just as sick in the head as you are".
Quote from the tweet below. Hehe.
Last opportunity. Clock is ticking, anon.
https://x.com/spacexbt/status/1983609844868190629?t=rnfgUvd7-gAuRUkyl_n8Eg&s=19
Quote from the tweet below. Hehe.
Last opportunity. Clock is ticking, anon.
https://x.com/spacexbt/status/1983609844868190629?t=rnfgUvd7-gAuRUkyl_n8Eg&s=19
X (formerly Twitter)
space Ξ (@spacexbt) on X
we’re entering the final stretch, you can feel it in the air the kind of silence before everything flips
2 to 4 months from now, some of you will be free the rest will still be coping, blaming timing, blaming luck
if you waste this last window out of comfort…
2 to 4 months from now, some of you will be free the rest will still be coping, blaming timing, blaming luck
if you waste this last window out of comfort…
𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭:
BTC underperforming equities hard. for no unambiguously reason. thought about that a lot today. possible explanations are china selling corn to weaken Trump/ US who are pushing stablecoins hard, OG whales selling because of 4-year cycle is near its end and the original vision of "we sell the coins to the bankers" has become fulfilled, black friday crash carried a lot of people out on a stretcher, possible miner capitulation / pivot to ai data centers (no hard evidence in the data for this), stocks mooning and equally easy access for retail as crypto and they don't have the fight the KOL rapists and fnf bundlers over there. probably a combination of all the above.
that said, i stopped believing in the 4-year cycle theory a long time ago and all of the other factors shall pass over time. supply overhang will get cleared at some point and after a couple of green candles the majority of the "lets pivot to stocks" crowd will be back with twitter posts about how they bought the pico bottom. not capitulating on my long here. i believe in the thesis. invalidation would be a weekly close below 98k. in this case i would exit all positions. until this doesn't become a reality i will just endure the infinity chop. HYPE and PUMP the strongest on my watchlist today, will keep holding these as well. job's not finished.
on-chain is Aids as usual. am down on every single buy. ceilings are getting lower and lower. after ai every meta that followed had a smaller ceiling and a shorter shelf-life. i don't see this trend reversing anytime soon and i don't think we will see billion-dollar on-chain runners in the foreseeable future. outside capital is not coming in. we are alone here.
outside capital didn't come in during ai meta as well. it was also just us buying in anticipation / pipe dream of outside capital coming in. difference was that market participants had a lot more money. now they been raped most of the year and black friday crash took most of the perps traders out as well. so many people are either toast or completely fed up with this shit. and why would they download phantom app when they just can buy stocks on Robinhood which has a similar good UI and similar little friction. plus the added benefit of not having to fight fnf people, bundlers, ruggers and being forced to carry additional security risks like hacks.
look at x402 meta, we have 2 types of coins. old stuff that is resurrected and fresh deploys that got spun up in a day. problem i find with these old coins that were dead and now getting resurrected is that fundamentals don‘t change in a day. people say „dev is building for a year“ but forget that these things couldn‘t find pmf in all this time. this opens up the door for KOLs and fnf groups to scan for dead charts, corner supply and start posting and praising it as the next big thing on the timeline and then rape it. fresh coins have increased rug risk and the bundlers and are equally rape infested. the pond is getting smaller.
i am still playing (and losing, for now) but with a small fraction of my capital. not willing to fire 100k into a token now like i used to do. the days were late-early buyers who stepped in with size were rewarded are long gone. this style of trading doesn't work anymore in the current on-chain climate. its a rotators market with low ceilings. people say "just adapt and do the same" but they forget one thing. when top-blasters and believers constantly get punished then they will step out at some point and this leads to ceilings become even lower and rotations to become even faster. the results is a race to the bottom.
BTC underperforming equities hard. for no unambiguously reason. thought about that a lot today. possible explanations are china selling corn to weaken Trump/ US who are pushing stablecoins hard, OG whales selling because of 4-year cycle is near its end and the original vision of "we sell the coins to the bankers" has become fulfilled, black friday crash carried a lot of people out on a stretcher, possible miner capitulation / pivot to ai data centers (no hard evidence in the data for this), stocks mooning and equally easy access for retail as crypto and they don't have the fight the KOL rapists and fnf bundlers over there. probably a combination of all the above.
that said, i stopped believing in the 4-year cycle theory a long time ago and all of the other factors shall pass over time. supply overhang will get cleared at some point and after a couple of green candles the majority of the "lets pivot to stocks" crowd will be back with twitter posts about how they bought the pico bottom. not capitulating on my long here. i believe in the thesis. invalidation would be a weekly close below 98k. in this case i would exit all positions. until this doesn't become a reality i will just endure the infinity chop. HYPE and PUMP the strongest on my watchlist today, will keep holding these as well. job's not finished.
on-chain is Aids as usual. am down on every single buy. ceilings are getting lower and lower. after ai every meta that followed had a smaller ceiling and a shorter shelf-life. i don't see this trend reversing anytime soon and i don't think we will see billion-dollar on-chain runners in the foreseeable future. outside capital is not coming in. we are alone here.
outside capital didn't come in during ai meta as well. it was also just us buying in anticipation / pipe dream of outside capital coming in. difference was that market participants had a lot more money. now they been raped most of the year and black friday crash took most of the perps traders out as well. so many people are either toast or completely fed up with this shit. and why would they download phantom app when they just can buy stocks on Robinhood which has a similar good UI and similar little friction. plus the added benefit of not having to fight fnf people, bundlers, ruggers and being forced to carry additional security risks like hacks.
look at x402 meta, we have 2 types of coins. old stuff that is resurrected and fresh deploys that got spun up in a day. problem i find with these old coins that were dead and now getting resurrected is that fundamentals don‘t change in a day. people say „dev is building for a year“ but forget that these things couldn‘t find pmf in all this time. this opens up the door for KOLs and fnf groups to scan for dead charts, corner supply and start posting and praising it as the next big thing on the timeline and then rape it. fresh coins have increased rug risk and the bundlers and are equally rape infested. the pond is getting smaller.
i am still playing (and losing, for now) but with a small fraction of my capital. not willing to fire 100k into a token now like i used to do. the days were late-early buyers who stepped in with size were rewarded are long gone. this style of trading doesn't work anymore in the current on-chain climate. its a rotators market with low ceilings. people say "just adapt and do the same" but they forget one thing. when top-blasters and believers constantly get punished then they will step out at some point and this leads to ceilings become even lower and rotations to become even faster. the results is a race to the bottom.
sorry guys, I hope you see some humor in the shitposting.
it is basically my way of coping with the market when it's down only
it is basically my way of coping with the market when it's down only
maybe i’m just naive but i’m a firm believer that trading, at its heart, is basically the art of allocating capital to where the world needs it
if you think that the world needs more of something, you long it.
and if you think it needs less of it, you short it.
if you’re right, the world allocates more capital to you so that you can go on to help the world allocate even more capital.
and vice versa
maybe that is why i’ve been so bearish crypto this year
if you think that the world needs more of something, you long it.
and if you think it needs less of it, you short it.
if you’re right, the world allocates more capital to you so that you can go on to help the world allocate even more capital.
and vice versa
maybe that is why i’ve been so bearish crypto this year
I remember 2 years ago when we used to joke that Monad and MegaETH would launch at the start of the bear market.
Looks like it is about to come true
Looks like it is about to come true
Something feels off with this market.
I agree with Smiley that the PA feels quite similar to pre FTX implosion where they were selling off a bunch of assets causing some large irregulaties in the market.
The idea is that someone (wintermute/maybe another fund) was hit extremely hard in 10/10, causing them to liquidate the fund.
A retarded thesis I came up with is the way onchain has front ran majors by 2-3 weeks for the last 9-12 months could potentially be what we’re seeing with BTC in comparison to stocks.
As crypto is the smaller, illiquid sector, smart money is exiting through a small door. I’m quite confident that the larger crypto investors are indeed some of the smarter traders in markets overall as they recognised easy money over the past couple years and came in like sharks to squeeze out inefficiency’s.
There’s a lot of factors for us but also against us. We have the Trump crime syndicate who’s undoubtedly siphoning money out of this eco like no tomorrow + OG whales selling hard into the 4 year cycle thesis.
It almost feels like summer 2024 where we were in the 7+ month range, although the backdrop we currently have feels considerably better. Even the best of the best traders who use to be considered as having crystal balls have been wrong numerous times over the past 12 months and it feels like there’s less and less traders who are being publicly accurate for a sustained time period.
This along brings me concern as when you think about it at a deeper level, there should be a subset of traders, no matter the market condition who find signal in pattern recognition. The fact no one has been able to find consistent pattern recognition means there’s either unprecedented levels of crime or some type of advanced AI algo which is out trading basically every participant (there’s rumours about OpenAI/other large companies using their data for sophisticated options models).
Our industry has been declared as cowboys who would steal from their own mothers. Go back to early internet stages, remember how scared everyone was to put their credit cards online because scammers kept taking advantage of them?
I’ve said in a lot of writings that I believe crypto is in the 2004-2006 internet era where we’re just starting to see the amazons, googles, facebooks get birthed into the market (part of my ICM thesis).
I know it’s hard not to have that doomer mindset when it feels like there’s very little innovation happening around us.
Remember why you first entered this space, the tech is genuinely better, we just haven’t matured enough to see the fruits of it yet.
Maybe it takes 6 months, 2 years or a decade, till this day I still find it the most fun industry and don’t see anything coming close. If you genuinely don’t enjoy then there’s no point being here, you’ll perform much better in something you enjoy.
These are numbers on a screen at the end of the day, would a grown man who’s in control of his own emotions sit there and sob about bad it all looks or take action and find edge in this market through asymmetric plays other emotional traders are overlooking?
Everyone talks about survival, nobody talks about showing up everyday no matter conditions and continually refining your edge, gradually out ranking everyone. Just showing up here every day isn’t going to cut, you need to be actively getting better, researching, journalling, upskilling in everything aspect possible.
Take everything in this post very lightly, I’m just rambling trying to make sense of whats happening. The fact I’m writing this probably means we’re quite close to a bottom.
I agree with Smiley that the PA feels quite similar to pre FTX implosion where they were selling off a bunch of assets causing some large irregulaties in the market.
The idea is that someone (wintermute/maybe another fund) was hit extremely hard in 10/10, causing them to liquidate the fund.
A retarded thesis I came up with is the way onchain has front ran majors by 2-3 weeks for the last 9-12 months could potentially be what we’re seeing with BTC in comparison to stocks.
As crypto is the smaller, illiquid sector, smart money is exiting through a small door. I’m quite confident that the larger crypto investors are indeed some of the smarter traders in markets overall as they recognised easy money over the past couple years and came in like sharks to squeeze out inefficiency’s.
There’s a lot of factors for us but also against us. We have the Trump crime syndicate who’s undoubtedly siphoning money out of this eco like no tomorrow + OG whales selling hard into the 4 year cycle thesis.
It almost feels like summer 2024 where we were in the 7+ month range, although the backdrop we currently have feels considerably better. Even the best of the best traders who use to be considered as having crystal balls have been wrong numerous times over the past 12 months and it feels like there’s less and less traders who are being publicly accurate for a sustained time period.
This along brings me concern as when you think about it at a deeper level, there should be a subset of traders, no matter the market condition who find signal in pattern recognition. The fact no one has been able to find consistent pattern recognition means there’s either unprecedented levels of crime or some type of advanced AI algo which is out trading basically every participant (there’s rumours about OpenAI/other large companies using their data for sophisticated options models).
Our industry has been declared as cowboys who would steal from their own mothers. Go back to early internet stages, remember how scared everyone was to put their credit cards online because scammers kept taking advantage of them?
I’ve said in a lot of writings that I believe crypto is in the 2004-2006 internet era where we’re just starting to see the amazons, googles, facebooks get birthed into the market (part of my ICM thesis).
I know it’s hard not to have that doomer mindset when it feels like there’s very little innovation happening around us.
Remember why you first entered this space, the tech is genuinely better, we just haven’t matured enough to see the fruits of it yet.
Maybe it takes 6 months, 2 years or a decade, till this day I still find it the most fun industry and don’t see anything coming close. If you genuinely don’t enjoy then there’s no point being here, you’ll perform much better in something you enjoy.
These are numbers on a screen at the end of the day, would a grown man who’s in control of his own emotions sit there and sob about bad it all looks or take action and find edge in this market through asymmetric plays other emotional traders are overlooking?
Everyone talks about survival, nobody talks about showing up everyday no matter conditions and continually refining your edge, gradually out ranking everyone. Just showing up here every day isn’t going to cut, you need to be actively getting better, researching, journalling, upskilling in everything aspect possible.
Take everything in this post very lightly, I’m just rambling trying to make sense of whats happening. The fact I’m writing this probably means we’re quite close to a bottom.