arine heatwaves last?

Long-range seasonal forecasts and experimental marine heatwave forecasts predict continuing widespread warming over the coming months. Regionally, the latter forecasts indicate that marine heatwaves in the tropical Atlantic have a 50-80% chance of persisting into boreal winter 2023, although confidence in these forecasts generally decreases with increasing lead time. Additionally, models predict an elevated risk of marine heatwave conditions along the US west coast in boreal spring 2024 as the current El Niño continues to strengthen, since events usually peak in austral summer. See the full report for a breakdown of additional regions.

Impacts

Each year, marine heatwaves impact marine ecosystems around the globe, resulting in billions of US dollars in damages to marine ecosystems and to industries such as fisheries or tourism. During summer, marine heatwaves cause heat stress on a large variety of marine species including foundation species like seagrass, kelp and corals, with El Niño marine heatwave conditions particularly impactful on these species globally. For example, coral reefs off the Florida Keys have experienced an unprecedented level of coral bleaching this year. Aside from ecosystems, ocean heat is an important fuel source for developing tropical cyclones. Marine heatwaves in the tropical Indian Ocean contribute to rapidly intensifying cyclones and fluctuations in the monsoon rainfall. Extreme warming in the tropical Atlantic could contribute to stronger storms, although the influence of El Niño on upper-level winds may counteract the effect of the warm surface temperatures.

Due to ongoing global warming in response to unabated greenhouse gas emissions, instances of extreme ocean warming are projected to further increase in frequency, duration, and intensity. If dramatic mitigation and adaptation efforts do not occur, then each increment of future warming may lead to severe impacts on biodiversity, structure and function of marine ecosystems.

This assessment was made by the Marine Heatwaves in the Global Ocean Research Focus of the Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Core Project of the World Climate Research Programme. The goal of the Research Focus is to achieve a better understanding of marine heat waves globally, including detection, surface and subsurface characteristics, mechanisms, connection with climate change and biogeochemical extremes, in order to increase preparedness and promote efficient adaptation planning, while contributing to the training of the next generation of scientists and providing input to observational programs.

Contact: Prof. Regina Rodrigues, regina.rodrigues@ufsc.br
Language
English

Featured Media

WCRP: ocean scientists assess marine heatwaves

Type of news

News

Publish Date

Tuesday, September 5, 2023 - 17:30

Tags

Oceans

Climate change

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CPA

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