An explosion was heard in the Krasnokuts'k area of Kharkiv Oblast from an Iskander-M ballistic missile strike.

Ukrainian intelligence seems to believe that Russia will resume combat use of the "Novator 9M729" cruise missile system in the near future.

The first launches of Novator missiles were recorded in 2022, however issues with launch procedures resulted in the project undergoing further development up until now.

Novator cruise missiles have a maximum range of 1,500 km, meaning they can hit any target in Ukraine, and are launched from an experimental Iskander-M1 OTRK which can carry up to 4 missiles at a time. A maximum of 24 Iskander-M1 OTRKs are reportedly in service near Ukraine.

This marks a further step towards the end of the usage of Kh-101 cruise missiles, which at this point are primarily used just because of their long-range capabilities. Kh-101s are expensive and inconvenient to use, and are relatively easy to shoot down compared to other cruise missiles. This, along with Ukraine's strikes on strategic bombers in June 2025, resulted in them being used less and less over time, as they were slowly replaced by other missiles, namely Kalibrs, Iskander-Ms, Iskander-Ks, and Kinzhals.

In the Dobropillya direction, Russian forces continued to advance north of Pokrovsk and have captured new positions in three different areas.

In the southwest, following an operational pause, Russian forces resumed their assault operations in Hryshyne and have captured new positions in the southeastern part of the village, advancing in the direction of the school. Other assault groups continued their attacks along the road to Hryshyne and captured the wastewater treatment plant along with the adjacent treeline positions.

In the northeast, Russian forces managed to eliminate the remaining Ukrainian presence in the centre of Zatyshok and recaptured treeline positions to the west. Ukrainian forces are bringing in reinforcements through Sukhetske to the dachas on the western outskirts of Zatyshok, where fighting is now taking place. Additionally, Russian forces managed to infiltrate further west from northern Rodynske, entering additional areas of the railway windbreaks and further threatening the remaining Ukrainian formations in the city with encirclement.

+ ~1.82 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Dobropillya and Druzhkivka directions, Russian forces continued to advance on both banks of the Kazenyi Torets River, amid additional deep DRG infiltrations.

In the west, Russian forces fully re-established control over the village of Nove Shakhove and captured part of the treeline to the west. DRGs expanded their operations further, infiltrating from Nove Shakhove and Dorozhnje, and moving through and beyond the village of Novyi Donbas. Some DRGs have come within 3 km of the outskirts of Dobropillya city.

To the northeast, Russian forces continued to incrementally advance northwest of Shakhove and captured additional treeline positions in the direction of Kucheriv Yar.

Further northeast, following earlier infiltrations across the Poltavka River, Russian soldiers managed to gain a foothold in the southern houses of Novopavlivka. The other houses are in the grey-zone, with Ukraine's main presence now shifting further north to the neighbouring village of Pavlivka.

+ ~3.69 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

Over the last few hours, Russian Geran-3 jet-drones have been attacking the "Kyiv" 750 kV electrical substation near Nalyvaikivka, Kyiv Oblast.

At least 4 impacts have been recorded so far, and more drones are on the way.

Coordinates: 50.4937, 29.69286

Preparations are underway for another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

- Immediately after the last attack, 5 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed to Ukrainka Airbase in the far east. 1 more followed the day after.

- Since then, 2 Tu-95MS redeployed back to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast Airbase where they were equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. 1 of these bombers has since redeployed to Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.

Additional movements of Tu-95MS/160 strategic bombers will probably take place in the coming days.

The Ukrainian SBU published footage showing at least 4 FP-1 drone strikes on the Taman Port in Krasnodar Krai from last night.

Additionally, an An-124-100 cargo plane has landed at Baltimore Airbase, Voronezh Oblast. The cargo likely consists of Iskander-M ballistic missiles for OTRK installations near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

In the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations in and around Kostyantynivka and have advanced in five different areas.

In the northeast, Russian forces finally consolidated in the remaining residential blocks east of the highway and captured positions further northwest up to Brativ Kotelinykovykh Street. Other assault groups continued outflanking the railway station from the north, capturing new positions there, while renewed attacks were carried out on the area of the railway station.

To the south, following repeated infiltrations, Russian forces crossed the Kryvyi Torets River and entrenched in the forests east of the Kostyantynivka Technical School. Fighting is now ongoing for the technical school and surrounding buildings.

To the west, Russian forces managed to improve their positions west of the forested gulley leading south from Illinivka, capturing a section of the tactical heights in the treelines there. Meanwhile, Ukrainian FPV drone strikes continued mass-striking the village of Illinivka, resulting in its southern streets returning back into the grey-zone.

To the southwest, Russian forces continued to advance near Stepanivka and captured the last positions south of the village.

+ ~2.63 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance north of the Siverskyi Donets River, capturing new positions in two different areas.

In the east, Russian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets River from the forested areas to the north and gained a foothold in the northwestern part of Zakitne. Other assault groups broke through Ukrainian positions on the southern bank of the river, linking up with the bridgehead. Fighting also continues for the area of the church.

In the west, Russian forces carried out an unsuccessful attempt at capturing a strongpoint in the southern part of Ozerne. Due to this, a number of Russian soldiers instead crossed the lake to the west and gained a foothold in the southwestern houses of the village . From there, they advanced further east towards the southern streets, capturing additional positions there.

+ ~1.35 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

Activity is recorded on Russian strategic frequencies, including one frequency commonly used for combat sorties.

There is a possibility of a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight.

It's likely that 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, however this is unconfirmed.

Russian Gerbera recon drones were scouting out Kyiv and the surrounding areas a few days ago. It's possible that Kyiv Oblast will be the target.

The Tu-95MS which were airborne (at least 2) were seemingly redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase to Belaya Airbase after being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

The fact that a combat frequency is active still suggests an attack could occur tonight. Belaya Airbase is often used for departures for combat sorties.

The combat frequency that is currently active is 8131 kHz, which is the most commonly used combat frequency for the winter period. Communications with Command and Control in Moscow on 4632 kHz were also recorded earlier, although I haven't heard anything for around 30 minutes now.

- Currently there are no strategic aviation in the air, however departures from Belaya/Ukrainka Airbases will likely take place in the next 90 minutes.

- There is also a possibility of Kalibr cruise missiles being launched from vessels in the Black Sea. No information on the Caspian Sea right now since my earlier reports on 2-3 Buyan-M corvettes being equipped with Kalibrs.

- Su-57(s) were also likely equipped with Kh-59/69 cruise missiles at Akhtubinsk Airbase some time ago, however it's not clear if they will be used tonight.

- There is an increased threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile launches too, especially from Voronezh Oblast and Crimea.

- No information on MiG-31Ks.

- Preparations for mass launches of Geran-2 drones are underway.

Information continues to be clarified. I will continue to update throughout the day.

Two Russian recon drones are hovering near the "Zhytomyrska" 330 kV electrical substation in Zhytomyr City right now.

Coordinates: 50.29091, 28.70002