Iskander on Sumy

Flying to Khotin

Another Iskander was launched

Both disappeared

The speed suggests they were S-300s in Ground-to-ground mode

Another missile flying in the same direction

This one disappeared too. They are targeting the border area near Khotin.

Another S-300 to Khotin

Two were launched here. Both impacted the same area near the frontline.

Analysis on the Pokrovske-Prosyana direction (Part 1):

Since the fall of Vuhledar, Russian forces have been carrying out a concerted effort to collapse and capture the rest of Ukrainian-controlled south Donetsk Oblast. Now with that goal almost completed, the next goal for Russia in this direction is likely to seize two important settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The city of Hulyaipole, and the town of Pokrovske.

Both Hulyaipole and Pokrovske are key logistical hubs for Ukrainian forces defending the line from Andriivka-Kletsove in Donetsk Oblast, to the eastern flank of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, Hulyaipole is the strongest of the two, and lies right next to the line of contact in an area that has seen little movement for over three years. Ukrainian forces have used this time to convert this city into a fortress that Russia would undoubtably take substantial losses if trying to storm head on. So naturally, Russia will likely carry out their usual strategy with cities like this: simply bypassing them and attacking from the less-fortified rear.

After the fall of Vuhledar in September 2024, the frontline entered a stage of collapse, as the Ukrainians didn't carry out a coordinated withdrawal and fallback from the city. This allowed for the Russians to simply keep advancing further and further, with their only difficult points being specific settlements with higher concentrations of Ukrainian manpower. This continued until they reached the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, which after a second series of attacks (including coordinated efforts from the west), also fell quite quickly relative to its significance.

The fall of Velyka Novosilka marked a new era for the remnants of the south Donetsk front. It allowed for a refocusing of efforts west of the city after the remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance south of the Vovcha River and east of the Mokri Yaly River were cleared. The fall of Velyka Novosilka led to the subsequent fall of Komar, and the establishment of a three-settlement line of key logistical hubs now used by Russia to attack even further west to achieve their new goals.

I have split this into three areas: 1, 2, and 3:

Area 1 is largely supplied by Komar, with its southern boundary forming the operational border between the Russian 36th and 6th Combined Arms Armies. Area 1 covers the remnants of the Ukrainian positions east of the Vovcha River, as well as south of Novopavlivka.

Area 2 is largely supplied by Velyka Novosilka, and covers the zone from the bend in the Vovcha River to the Yanchur River, and includes the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk tri-border point.

Area 3 is largely supplied by Staromylnivka, and covers the East-Zaporihzhzhia front, including Hulyaipole. It is the strongest and most stable section of this front.

But let's break this down further before looking at possible future movements.

Area 1 was previously the "easiest" section of this front for Russia. After they had properly established themselves west of the Mokri Yaly River, they were able to advance to the eastern bank of the Vovcha River. However, Komar's proximity to the frontline, and its position in what was at the time a more evident salient, made it difficult to transfer supplies through due to the presence of Ukrainian FPV drones. Ukrainian forces likely took advantage of this and exploited a lack of Russian consolidation in and around Andriivka-Klevtsove, Zelenyi Hai, and Olekandrohrad, to conduct a series of counterattacks towards the Mokri Yaly River. However, the presence of the Vovcha River made supply for the Ukrainians here difficult too, and the attacks eventually resulted in a withdrawal from their forward positions in and around Tolstoi. But to further cement Russia's presence in Area 1, Russian assault operations were carried out to the bend in the Vovcha River in order to further isolate Ukrainian positions east of the river, which brings us to Area 2.

(Part 2 below)

Analysis on the Pokrovske-Prosyana direction (Part 2):

Area 2 is where the bulk of Russian offensive actions are taking place. They have been constantly fattening their zone of control west of the Mokri Yaly River, and are now over 20km west of it. Here, they have been exploiting a lack of Ukrainian manpower to move through fields and treelines relatively quickly and "smoothly", bypassing key villages which hold the main Ukrainian presences, taking them into dangerous salients, and forcing them to withdraw (Komyshuvakha is a prime example of this). Ukraine simply can't cover every section of Area 2 with soldiers, so instead chooses to concentrate most of them in settlements, utilising their cover for forward deployment points to exert their control outwards to the fields. Naturally, this gives Russian drone operators easier targets to hit, as the positions of Ukrainians are more predictable. With these quicker Russian advances, Ukrainian drone operators in villages previously several kilometres behind the line of contact are often caught off guard and have to quickly (and likely chaotically) withdraw further west, set up their new UAV control points, and go through the process of re-establishing themselves effectively. This takes time, is very dangerous when closer to the line of contact, and the lag between the withdrawal and completion of new positions results in less Ukrainian FPV drone coverage, which Russia exploits for less losses when advancing here.

Area 3 sees little frontline activity. Skirmishes and occasional ground attacks occur, but it's mostly limited to mutual artillery shelling and FPV drone strikes on well-dug-in positions. But I believe there is a reason for this, and that is because the Russians don't need to advance here right now...

With the Ukrainian presence west of the Vovcha River in Area 1 now isolated and likely coming to an end, and Russian forces enjoying steady advances westwards in Area 2, it appears that Russia is trying to reach the town of Pokrovske and subsequently the rear of Hulyaipole. A significant portion of movement in and out of Hulyaipole goes through Pokrovske, so if the Russians can capture Velykomykhailivka (another important Ukrainian logistical hub), then get close to, and capture Pokrovske, it will put them in a much stronger position to storm Hulyaipole from three directions. Currently Russian forces are advancing downhill to the rest of Hulyaipole - reminiscent of the operations to reach the rear of Vuhledar. If they cross the Yanchur River and establish a solid bridgehead west of it, the city will be in danger of being taken into a pocket. Area 3 won't have to be activated unless it becomes the "bottom of the salient", where supply for Ukraine is the most difficult due to its distance from the outside of the salient, similar to the current situation in Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad.

But there is one other thing to consider with a prolonged operation like this: It may depend on the situation on other fronts - namely Novopavlivka to the northeast. Depending on how strong Ukraine is in the Pokrovske area when the town falls, Russia may have to have collapsed the Novopavlivka salient, and advance north of the Vovcha River to the north of Pokrovske, but that could be difficult due to the placement of Mezhova. This is why it would be impossible to put a timeline on an operation like this, as all sections of the frontline influence each other.

Legend for the map:

Orange lines: Important roads
Green lines: Area boundaries
Yellow circles: Important logistical hubs
Red arrows: Possible approximate future Russian attack vectors
Light blue lines: Significant rivers

(Part 1 above)

⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 The IDF announced the designation of a humanitarian area in Khan Yunis and urged citizens to enter the area as ground operations expand in Gaza City under Operation Gideon’s Chariots II.

@wfwitness

This area has limited infrastructure and is not very big, but interestingly it includes most of Khan Younis Refugee Camp in eastern Khan Younis City, which was previously under a mandatory evacuation order. Khan Younis camp has its own dedicated Hamas battalion under the Khan Younis Brigade, and is the source of most attacks on Israeli forces in Khan Younis.

Ukrainian sources are reporting that the Slovyansk - Izyum Highway is under Russian fire control from FPV drones. Currently the highway is around 19 km from the closest Russian controlled territory.

Over the past few weeks, Russian forces have been steadily advancing south towards the city of Lyman and the Oskil River.

Russian forces have captured the village of Oleksandro-Shultyne, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~195.
Total land area: ~1.39 km².

MiG-31K airborne. Threat of Kinzhal launches. Sirens are sounding in all regions of Ukraine.

Likely training

Russian forces have captured the village of Yunakivka, Yunakivka direction, Sumy Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~1,740.
Total land area: ~6.97 km².

The battles for Yunakivka lasted approximately 103 days.

Slovyansk direction, useful information. Active Russian artillery guns firing from the hill at (red highlighted area east of Zaliznyanske), general coordinates 48.693601, 37.967425, be careful. They are using "diagonal" firing, that is, also targeting objectives not on the first line.
30th Mechanized is firmly entrenched in the Orikhovo Vasylivka area, thwarts Russian attempts to advance from Hryhorivka. Focus is now on Vasyukivka, attacks are to be expected along the so-called "old road" that goes to Slovyansk, as M-03 highway is firmly defended by Ukrainians.
Russian fiber optic FPV unit was transferred here recently, their fiber optics fly 12km up to the yellow mark turn of M-03.

Massive Geran-2 drone attack on Ukraine tonight. Hundreds of drones attacked targets in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Kyiv, Kremenchuk, Odesa, etc. 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles were also used on Kryvyi Rih earlier.

More details later once the attack is over and some information can be clarified.