Breaking:

Could this chart derail everything?

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📉 Just this week:
- Switzerland cut rates again
- Japan held rates flat
- UK held steady
- U.S. and Canada signaled potential changes ahead
- Surprise cut from Norway

All of this affects your overnight holding costs —and could mean the difference between a profitable trade or a slow bleed from swap fees.
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- Alan

GOLD – Waiting on the Next Move

Gold is currently drifting between two key zones, with price action stalling slightly lower. Recent reactions suggest sellers are sitting around the $3,400 level, while buyers continue to show strength near $3,200.

Fundamentally, Gold’s upside has remained capped following this week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed opted to hold rates steady, emphasizing the need for further clarity before making any adjustments. One of their concerns: potential inflationary pressures stemming from new tariff policies. With the Fed’s tone now public, traders are left digesting what comes next.

In my opinion, Gold’s next move could be closely tied to developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. Further escalation may cause a surge in safe haven demand, which could give Gold a strong bid. Although some reports suggest a decision or resolution may come within the next two weeks, tensions could spike at any moment.

Key charts to gauge risk-on/risk-off sentiment: OIL, VIX, DXY, CHF, JPY

⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- De-escalation or diplomatic negotiations begin between Israel and Iran
- Broader risk-off sentiment takes hold and boosts safe havens
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Talks fall apart or conflict escalates
- Risk-on appetite returns, pressuring safe haven demand

– Alan

DXY – Breaking Out of the Downtrend

The Dollar caught a strong bid following this week’s FOMC meeting. Technically, DXY broke out above a downward trendline that’s been respected since February 2nd. Nearest resistance is at the $100.

Fundamentally, the Dollar’s strength is being supported by two factors. First, The Fed is choosing to hold rates steady while signaling that cuts are unlikely in the near term. Powell noted that inflation remains sticky and the committee would rather wait for more clarity. Second, the Dollar is benefiting from its traditional role as a safe haven — especially with tensions continuing in the Middle East.

In my opinion, the Fed does have data that supports easing. Giving me a cautious stance on steep upside

⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Fed shifts tone or softens guidance in upcoming speeches
- Geopolitical tensions cool, reducing safe haven demand
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Fed reaffirms hawkish stance
- Continued global uncertainty drives capital into USD

– Alan

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EdgeFinder’s COT History

Happy Friday! We’re about to get a fresh round of COT filings. These reports give us a glimpse into how institutional players are positioned across major markets. While it’s not a crystal ball, it’s one of the few tools that shows where the “big money” is leaning.

We as traders use COT data to track changes in long vs short contracts across futures markets. The trend matters more than the absolute numbers. Sharp increases in short interest or steady declines in long exposure can hint at positioning shifts before price follows.

Looking at SP500’s COT chart on EdgeFinder, we’ve seen a clear change in sentiment:
- Long contracts dropped WoW
- Short contracts rose WoW
- Net positioning flipped aggressively bearish, now at -127K

While price is still near highs, institutions are clearly hedging or preparing for a pullback. Whether this results in a correction or not — that’s TBD.

📊 Want to monitor this weekly? EdgeFinder’s COT tab updates every Friday.

– Alan

From VIP Group:

Profits taken on AUDCAD! Closing out at 4H support for a quick profit on that nice drop this morning.

Will look for another opportunity to go short.

~ +72 pips profit 🎉

- Nick

NZD/USD – Textbook Breakout

NZD/USD had been riding a steady uptrend before stalling near the 0.60000–0.60600 zone. After a period of consolidation, price broke below the upward trendline, retested the level, and flushed lower — now approaching the 200 Day Moving Average.

While the structure was textbook from a technical standpoint, the move was fundamentally fueled. NZD is considered a risk-on currency, meaning it’s sensitive to global sentiment. Last week, the Fed struck a more hawkish tone, suggesting it may be best to hold rates steady for longer. That policy stance boosted the Dollar. Then, over the weekend, the US launched strikes on three Iranian targets — and markets opened Sunday in a clear risk-off tone. All of this added fuel to the downside in NZD/USD.

In my opinion, this setup is a clean example of when technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment align. The next key level of support sits at 0.58500, right near the 200 Day MA — a spot worth watching for possible reaction.

– Alan

USOIL – Near-Term Ceiling Solidified?

OIL opened strong during Sunday’s session, rallying into previous highs around $77. However, price quickly reacted to that resistance zone and is now trading below the daily open.

Fundamentally, the weekend brought renewed geopolitical tensions. The US conducted targeted strikes in the Middle East, escalating concerns around regional instability. While this initially pushed oil higher — as traders priced in potential supply disruptions — the move faded as broader market sentiment shifted back to caution. The lack of follow-through from buyers may also reflect doubts about sustained conflict or oversupply fears weighing on the rally.

In my opinion, this could mark a short-term ceiling for oil unless further escalation develops. If we remain in a risk-off environment but without fresh headlines to shock supply chains, oil may continue to consolidate or even fade lower. If tensions flare again — we could see another test of the $77 mark or higher.

– Alan

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