NZD/USD – Pure Resilience
Recently the NZD has been resilient despite the market uncertainty. Since April 9th NZD has been bought at any sight of a pullback. Last week the NZD broke out of resistance and has been trading above that level since, showing strength.
Fundamentally, NZD has been beating expectations, bought by institutions for four weeks in a row, and is net bearish for retail positioning.
In my opinion, the NZD will be my preferred pair of choice when shorting USD. Only IF it these variables stay strong.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US CPI comes in hot
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US CPI comes in cool
- Alan
Recently the NZD has been resilient despite the market uncertainty. Since April 9th NZD has been bought at any sight of a pullback. Last week the NZD broke out of resistance and has been trading above that level since, showing strength.
Fundamentally, NZD has been beating expectations, bought by institutions for four weeks in a row, and is net bearish for retail positioning.
In my opinion, the NZD will be my preferred pair of choice when shorting USD. Only IF it these variables stay strong.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US CPI comes in hot
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US CPI comes in cool
- Alan
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EdgeFinder's Retail Sentiment
Retail sentiment is one of my favorite contrarian signals in FX. It’s similar to how you might use the Put/Call Ratio in equities or options to gauge when sentiment is stretched in one direction. With EdgeFinder’s retail sentiment screen, we can see that retail traders are currently net long the Dollar across most major FX pairs.
That adds another layer of confluence to my view that Dollar strength may be short-lived. That doesn't mean Dollar will go straight down from here. I'm interested in fading meaningful Dollar appreciation.
-Alan
Retail sentiment is one of my favorite contrarian signals in FX. It’s similar to how you might use the Put/Call Ratio in equities or options to gauge when sentiment is stretched in one direction. With EdgeFinder’s retail sentiment screen, we can see that retail traders are currently net long the Dollar across most major FX pairs.
That adds another layer of confluence to my view that Dollar strength may be short-lived. That doesn't mean Dollar will go straight down from here. I'm interested in fading meaningful Dollar appreciation.
-Alan
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US10Y – Traders Add Bets on a September Start to Fed Rate Cuts After CPI
The US10Y fell sharply after a cooler-than-expected CPI print and a positive trade development between the US and China. With both data and diplomacy working in favor of risk sentiment, traders are now adding to bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as September.
The CPI is one of the Fed’s key inflation metrics, and this softer print brings us closer to their 2% target. That, in turn, gives the Fed more confidence to start easing.
I personally watch the US10Y closely to gauge rate expectations. If the 10Y keeps trending lower, that’s a signal to me that the market is pricing in cuts—so I look to express that view by trading against the Dollar through currency pairs.
- Alan
The US10Y fell sharply after a cooler-than-expected CPI print and a positive trade development between the US and China. With both data and diplomacy working in favor of risk sentiment, traders are now adding to bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as September.
The CPI is one of the Fed’s key inflation metrics, and this softer print brings us closer to their 2% target. That, in turn, gives the Fed more confidence to start easing.
I personally watch the US10Y closely to gauge rate expectations. If the 10Y keeps trending lower, that’s a signal to me that the market is pricing in cuts—so I look to express that view by trading against the Dollar through currency pairs.
- Alan
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SP500 - Is It Time to Chase?
The S&P is approaching all-time highs, but upside may be limited in the short term. While tagging new highs feels inevitable, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fakeout or some temporary exhaustion.
From a fundamental standpoint, COT data shows institutional money pulling back - removing 6,033 long contracts and adding 11,248 shorts. Net positioning has shifted more bearish, and a lot of major players are still on the sidelines.
In my view, some upcoming newsflow could bring the S&P into a rangebound environment or spark a healthy retracement. At these premium prices, I’m not looking to chase longs. Patience is key - and I think better opportunities are just around the corner.
- Alan
The S&P is approaching all-time highs, but upside may be limited in the short term. While tagging new highs feels inevitable, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fakeout or some temporary exhaustion.
From a fundamental standpoint, COT data shows institutional money pulling back - removing 6,033 long contracts and adding 11,248 shorts. Net positioning has shifted more bearish, and a lot of major players are still on the sidelines.
In my view, some upcoming newsflow could bring the S&P into a rangebound environment or spark a healthy retracement. At these premium prices, I’m not looking to chase longs. Patience is key - and I think better opportunities are just around the corner.
- Alan
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Last week, institutional players reduced long positions while increasing shorts, pushing net bearish positioning higher. This is one of the key fundamental reasons why upside near the S&P 500’s all-time highs is limited.
Institutional investors continue to hold cash and remain on the sidelines for several reasons. For one, money market assets have surged to nearly $7 trillion, much of which isn’t poised to flow into equities - but into emergency liquidity instead like HYSA. Signaling uncertainty is still around. Though with the recent trade deal with US-China moving forward, a cooling CPI, the uncertainty could come down a bit.
Moving forward, we can use the EdgeFinder moving forward to see if this bearish pressure increases, and track it week-over-week.
- Alan
Institutional investors continue to hold cash and remain on the sidelines for several reasons. For one, money market assets have surged to nearly $7 trillion, much of which isn’t poised to flow into equities - but into emergency liquidity instead like HYSA. Signaling uncertainty is still around. Though with the recent trade deal with US-China moving forward, a cooling CPI, the uncertainty could come down a bit.
Moving forward, we can use the EdgeFinder moving forward to see if this bearish pressure increases, and track it week-over-week.
- Alan
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Back in April, Nick executed one of his top gold trades of the year—a +10.6% swing driven by a clean technical setup and a strong fundamental backdrop.
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In this breakdown, he shares:
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- What made this setup so exceptional
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"Trading the Second Half" - Webinar Event Registration is now open!
Note: This event is FREE to attend! Join me and Chris as we present our top trade setups for the remainder of 2025.
When: Monday June 16th, at 9:30AM EST / 2:30PM UK
We'll be discussing:
- The USD's significant fall: is it turning, or headed lower?
- Is gold headed back to new highs?
- Bitcoin to 150K?
- Stock market rebound: New highs, or back to the lows?
We're pumped to do this event, and excited to have anyone who would like to attend join us for this important discussion.
Register for free here:
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Note: This event is FREE to attend! Join me and Chris as we present our top trade setups for the remainder of 2025.
When: Monday June 16th, at 9:30AM EST / 2:30PM UK
We'll be discussing:
- The USD's significant fall: is it turning, or headed lower?
- Is gold headed back to new highs?
- Bitcoin to 150K?
- Stock market rebound: New highs, or back to the lows?
We're pumped to do this event, and excited to have anyone who would like to attend join us for this important discussion.
Register for free here:
https://form.jotform.com/242265441549055
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Thanks for the thoughtful review Max! We love to hear that the EdgeFinder has become an important part of your trading!
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Thanks for the thoughtful review Max! We love to hear that the EdgeFinder has become an important part of your trading!
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DXY — Breaking the Lows
DXY flushes beneath the recent ATL at 97.93. Looking left, there’s no clean target in sight. The next area of interest is the higher time frame trendline near 97.00. Could be setting up for a bear trap.
This move seems driven by rising Middle East tensions and this morning’s weak US data — both PPI and jobless claims came in below expectations.
Another reason I don’t expect significant downside is because traders have already started pricing in rate cuts for September, with a second one potentially following as early as October. That shift in expectations could start getting baked in here. We’ll keep an eye on the US10Y and CME FedWatch.
In my view, dollar weakness remains the path of least resistance. That said, a big move has already played out. If I got a fill short, I’d be aiming for small bites — not swinging for home runs.
- Alan
DXY flushes beneath the recent ATL at 97.93. Looking left, there’s no clean target in sight. The next area of interest is the higher time frame trendline near 97.00. Could be setting up for a bear trap.
This move seems driven by rising Middle East tensions and this morning’s weak US data — both PPI and jobless claims came in below expectations.
Another reason I don’t expect significant downside is because traders have already started pricing in rate cuts for September, with a second one potentially following as early as October. That shift in expectations could start getting baked in here. We’ll keep an eye on the US10Y and CME FedWatch.
In my view, dollar weakness remains the path of least resistance. That said, a big move has already played out. If I got a fill short, I’d be aiming for small bites — not swinging for home runs.
- Alan
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GOLD – Approaching the Highs
Gold is approaching all-time highs and a proven barrier to the upside. I’m curious to see if the level breaks and holds above. A move like that would signal another wave of risk-off environment. If so – I’d be interested in shorting USDJPY or USDCHF on pullbacks.
The reason for this move is tied to Middle East tensions rising. The Trump Administration placed a 60-day deadline for a new deal intended to limit Iran’s nuclear operations. Also, continued weakening US data supported Gold’s rise.
In my opinion, shorting at resistance is tricky. Though potentially lucrative – shorting an asset that trends up over time and rising geopolitical risk is a dangerous game to play. I’d prefer to see a break and retest or wait for a buy opportunity at a discount IF the level fails.
Option 1: Wait for a break and retest. Valid trade if risk-off environment is still in-play.
Option 2: Wait for a discount. Tensions fade and risk-on environment is in play
- Alan
Gold is approaching all-time highs and a proven barrier to the upside. I’m curious to see if the level breaks and holds above. A move like that would signal another wave of risk-off environment. If so – I’d be interested in shorting USDJPY or USDCHF on pullbacks.
The reason for this move is tied to Middle East tensions rising. The Trump Administration placed a 60-day deadline for a new deal intended to limit Iran’s nuclear operations. Also, continued weakening US data supported Gold’s rise.
In my opinion, shorting at resistance is tricky. Though potentially lucrative – shorting an asset that trends up over time and rising geopolitical risk is a dangerous game to play. I’d prefer to see a break and retest or wait for a buy opportunity at a discount IF the level fails.
Option 1: Wait for a break and retest. Valid trade if risk-off environment is still in-play.
Option 2: Wait for a discount. Tensions fade and risk-on environment is in play
- Alan
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Join over 30 million customers worldwide and discover the benefits of trading with Plus500:
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US Economic Heatmap – Not Good, Not Terrible
The Eco Surprise Meter is ticking higher for the US — a positive shift. The broader economic picture has improved slightly, and correlations are starting to stabilize. CPI came in softer, which is generally a win for equities but a loss for the Dollar.
Equities like lower interest rates — cheaper borrowing, better margins, more room to grow
The Dollar, on the other hand, loses ground on a weaker CPI print. As the Fed moves toward rate cuts, yields come down, and that lowers returns for fixed income investors. Naturally, money starts rotating out of bonds and into risk-on assets like equities.
Also, tariff headlines have stabilized and price reactions have been suppressed. It seems like we're moving back to "data being data." I believe we're at a shifting point — In a good way.
- Alan
The Eco Surprise Meter is ticking higher for the US — a positive shift. The broader economic picture has improved slightly, and correlations are starting to stabilize. CPI came in softer, which is generally a win for equities but a loss for the Dollar.
Equities like lower interest rates — cheaper borrowing, better margins, more room to grow
The Dollar, on the other hand, loses ground on a weaker CPI print. As the Fed moves toward rate cuts, yields come down, and that lowers returns for fixed income investors. Naturally, money starts rotating out of bonds and into risk-on assets like equities.
Also, tariff headlines have stabilized and price reactions have been suppressed. It seems like we're moving back to "data being data." I believe we're at a shifting point — In a good way.
- Alan
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AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in mostly neutral - for the first time in many months.
This survey asks respondents if they're feeling bullish, neutral, or bearish on stocks. For months, the crowd has been bearish on stocks.
It looks like the bears finally threw in the towell... Sentiment in the middle now.
- Nick
This survey asks respondents if they're feeling bullish, neutral, or bearish on stocks. For months, the crowd has been bearish on stocks.
It looks like the bears finally threw in the towell... Sentiment in the middle now.
- Nick
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USOIL – Big Breakout
As mentioned before, USOIL was ranging near resistance while holding above the 50-day moving average. A technical breakout felt likely — and it played out. At the time, the EdgeFinder gave a strong +6 reading, backing the bullish trend.
Initially, the key drivers were Ukraine-Russia tensions, US sanctions on Russian oil, and seasonal demand increases. Now there's more fuel to the fire — last night, Israel-Iran tensions escalated following strikes.
In my view, if tensions continue to rise, we could see oil stay elevated or push a bit higher. But trading at these premium levels is risky. If you're in the move — great. If not — oh well.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Conflicts de-escalate
- Sanctions get rolled back
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Geopolitical tensions worsen
- Alan
As mentioned before, USOIL was ranging near resistance while holding above the 50-day moving average. A technical breakout felt likely — and it played out. At the time, the EdgeFinder gave a strong +6 reading, backing the bullish trend.
Initially, the key drivers were Ukraine-Russia tensions, US sanctions on Russian oil, and seasonal demand increases. Now there's more fuel to the fire — last night, Israel-Iran tensions escalated following strikes.
In my view, if tensions continue to rise, we could see oil stay elevated or push a bit higher. But trading at these premium levels is risky. If you're in the move — great. If not — oh well.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Conflicts de-escalate
- Sanctions get rolled back
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Geopolitical tensions worsen
- Alan
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VIX – A Gauge Into Risk
The VIX spiked briefly last night on renewed tensions in the Middle East — an expected reaction. For context, the VIX measures expected volatility in the SP500. When geopolitical risks rise, uncertainty floods in, and the VIX tends to jump. Usually, big price fluctuations follow a VIX spike.
Personally, I like using the VIX as a pulse check — are we bracing for more violent swings? Or are things starting to cool off? It’s not a perfect signal, but it helps paint a picture of where sentiment stands.
- Alan
The VIX spiked briefly last night on renewed tensions in the Middle East — an expected reaction. For context, the VIX measures expected volatility in the SP500. When geopolitical risks rise, uncertainty floods in, and the VIX tends to jump. Usually, big price fluctuations follow a VIX spike.
Personally, I like using the VIX as a pulse check — are we bracing for more violent swings? Or are things starting to cool off? It’s not a perfect signal, but it helps paint a picture of where sentiment stands.
- Alan
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With conflict in the Middle East - Rising VIX, OIL, Gold, CHF, JPY, and USD. It's no surprise why the EdgeFinder's Risk On / Risk Off Gauge shows we are in a Risk-Off environment for now.
Keeping track of these assets and world news could be a time consuming task. With software you can get a quick gauge of the environment in real-time - in <30 seconds..
Keeping track of these assets and world news could be a time consuming task. With software you can get a quick gauge of the environment in real-time - in <30 seconds..
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