DXY – Do or Die for the Dollar
DXY found its way back to support at the $98 handle and is holding above it for now. Breaking its recent all-time low of $97 could cause DXY to flush lower. Holding above support could cause the DXY to continue trading range-bound.
US has been getting subpar data releases that are not helping its performance. Continued weakness in labor reports, like NFP this Friday, could be the catalyst to send the Dollar lower. On a positive note – Chinese State Media reported positive talks with the US, a positive thing for the US assets.
In my opinion, the DXY could be rangebound until NFP.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Misses in NFP data
- A concerned tone from the Fed
- Trade deals falling through
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Trade deals solidifying
- A hawkish Fed
- Alan
DXY found its way back to support at the $98 handle and is holding above it for now. Breaking its recent all-time low of $97 could cause DXY to flush lower. Holding above support could cause the DXY to continue trading range-bound.
US has been getting subpar data releases that are not helping its performance. Continued weakness in labor reports, like NFP this Friday, could be the catalyst to send the Dollar lower. On a positive note – Chinese State Media reported positive talks with the US, a positive thing for the US assets.
In my opinion, the DXY could be rangebound until NFP.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Misses in NFP data
- A concerned tone from the Fed
- Trade deals falling through
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Trade deals solidifying
- A hawkish Fed
- Alan
❤19👍9🔥4
NZDUSD – Breakout
NZDUSD broke out of resistance today and could target the nearest resistance zone at 0.61500
Fundamentally, the NZD has been beating expectations and has shown to be resilient, despite the uncertainty in markets. Recently, the NZD cut its rate, however they hinted at a pause for the rest of the year. This hawkish cut gave strength to NZD.
In my opinion, a break and retest would give me confidence to go long NZDUSD
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- A hawkish Fed
- A beat in NFP
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Fall-through in US-China trade negotiations. NZD is heavily impacted to China’s economy
- Alan
NZDUSD broke out of resistance today and could target the nearest resistance zone at 0.61500
Fundamentally, the NZD has been beating expectations and has shown to be resilient, despite the uncertainty in markets. Recently, the NZD cut its rate, however they hinted at a pause for the rest of the year. This hawkish cut gave strength to NZD.
In my opinion, a break and retest would give me confidence to go long NZDUSD
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- A hawkish Fed
- A beat in NFP
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Fall-through in US-China trade negotiations. NZD is heavily impacted to China’s economy
- Alan
❤20👍6🔥5
Gold Daily Chart:
I am back to the bullish camp, for now.
ADP numbers, soft PMIs, and today's weak unemployment claims data points suggest dollar weakness in my view.
I'm looking for pullback buys. Any trades I take will be shared in the VIP signals service.
If you haven't joined us already, don't miss out. Send us a DM for info!
https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80
- Nick
I am back to the bullish camp, for now.
ADP numbers, soft PMIs, and today's weak unemployment claims data points suggest dollar weakness in my view.
I'm looking for pullback buys. Any trades I take will be shared in the VIP signals service.
If you haven't joined us already, don't miss out. Send us a DM for info!
https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80
- Nick
❤22👍10
Nick's Gold Trade Breakdown
April 2025
🟢 Entry Price: 2959.83
🔴 Exit Price: 3274
Trade Result: +10.6%
Technical Analysis:
Nick re-entered this trade after price pulled back to a key support zone near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, within a strong uptrend. He used a slightly larger position with a tight stop below the 50% zone, aiming for a swing trade targeting a return to all-time highs.
Fundamental Analysis:
Despite tariff uncertainty, the market was showing strong relative performance. That strength, combined with a supportive macro backdrop, reinforced Nick’s bullish outlook.
🏆 Trade shared with VIP members! Get access to trades like this:
Use code TGVIP for 40% OFF the Gold VIP Membership
👉 Join here: https://a1trading.com/vip
April 2025
🟢 Entry Price: 2959.83
🔴 Exit Price: 3274
Trade Result: +10.6%
Technical Analysis:
Nick re-entered this trade after price pulled back to a key support zone near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, within a strong uptrend. He used a slightly larger position with a tight stop below the 50% zone, aiming for a swing trade targeting a return to all-time highs.
Fundamental Analysis:
Despite tariff uncertainty, the market was showing strong relative performance. That strength, combined with a supportive macro backdrop, reinforced Nick’s bullish outlook.
🏆 Trade shared with VIP members! Get access to trades like this:
Use code TGVIP for 40% OFF the Gold VIP Membership
👉 Join here: https://a1trading.com/vip
❤35👍6🫡1
DXY – Dollar finds strength after Payroll numbers
Earlier this week the dollar found support around the $98 range – with all eyes on the upcoming Jobs data for the week.
There was a mixed bag of data up leading up to today’s NFP report. Today – NFP beat expectations giving the dollar strength.
I’m interested to see how the DXY reacts to the $100 handle. Depending on how the data is around then – we could see a short-term rally in the Dollar. However, it’s important to note that the US has some rate cuts ahead. Short term appreciation can be short lived followed by rate cut pricing.
In my opinion, dollar is in the middle of a range with lack of direction.
- Alan
Earlier this week the dollar found support around the $98 range – with all eyes on the upcoming Jobs data for the week.
There was a mixed bag of data up leading up to today’s NFP report. Today – NFP beat expectations giving the dollar strength.
I’m interested to see how the DXY reacts to the $100 handle. Depending on how the data is around then – we could see a short-term rally in the Dollar. However, it’s important to note that the US has some rate cuts ahead. Short term appreciation can be short lived followed by rate cut pricing.
In my opinion, dollar is in the middle of a range with lack of direction.
- Alan
❤22🔥9👍6
OIL – The breakout trade
Earlier this week we discussed the potential OIL breakout trade. As the week comes to an end the setup looks more promising.
The EdgeFinder maintains a bullish reading of +6 for OIL, making the trade idea valid fundamentally. Technically – OIL has stayed about the 50 Day MA and are not testing resistance.
In my opinion, OIL getting a break and retest of the $65 handle would be a good setup technically and fundamentally.
- Alan
Earlier this week we discussed the potential OIL breakout trade. As the week comes to an end the setup looks more promising.
The EdgeFinder maintains a bullish reading of +6 for OIL, making the trade idea valid fundamentally. Technically – OIL has stayed about the 50 Day MA and are not testing resistance.
In my opinion, OIL getting a break and retest of the $65 handle would be a good setup technically and fundamentally.
- Alan
❤21🔥2
US Economic Heatmap
Although the US saw a positive NFP print, recent data releases cannot be ignored. Fundamentally, the US has been consistently missing expectations, putting pressure on the Dollar.
Additionally, the Fed is seeking an opportunity to lower interest rates, which would likely weigh further on the USD.
With sticky 10-year yields, underwhelming economic data, and ongoing tariff uncertainty, the US is in a challenging position. Any escalation in tariffs or continued weakness in economic indicators could lead to further Dollar downside.
Conversely, persistent yields and inflation risks may help support the Dollar for now.
- Alan
Although the US saw a positive NFP print, recent data releases cannot be ignored. Fundamentally, the US has been consistently missing expectations, putting pressure on the Dollar.
Additionally, the Fed is seeking an opportunity to lower interest rates, which would likely weigh further on the USD.
With sticky 10-year yields, underwhelming economic data, and ongoing tariff uncertainty, the US is in a challenging position. Any escalation in tariffs or continued weakness in economic indicators could lead to further Dollar downside.
Conversely, persistent yields and inflation risks may help support the Dollar for now.
- Alan
👍27❤9🔥6
Trial the EdgeFinder for 30 Days!
Start trading more confidently with data backed trade setups.
👉APPLY NOW
Start trading more confidently with data backed trade setups.
👉APPLY NOW
🔥19❤9💯3
Happy Monday! Who's ready for another week of trading?
EUR/USD – Was it a fakeout?
The Euro broke resistance at 1.14500 last Thursday but quickly traded below. The level of resistance has held about 8 times now. Typically – the more frequent a zone gets tested, the more likely it is to fail. Especially if we see tight rangebound price action in the zone.
The economic calendar is empty for today on both sides. The attention is on US-China’s meeting in London. A good outcome could propel the Dollar, causing the Euro to retrace.
There’s a level of sellers at 1.14400, and buyers at 1.12400
I’d personally wait for deeper retracements on Dollar crosses before shorting DXY.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US-China relations improving today
- Hotter than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US-China relations worsening today
- Cooler than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
- Alan
EUR/USD – Was it a fakeout?
The Euro broke resistance at 1.14500 last Thursday but quickly traded below. The level of resistance has held about 8 times now. Typically – the more frequent a zone gets tested, the more likely it is to fail. Especially if we see tight rangebound price action in the zone.
The economic calendar is empty for today on both sides. The attention is on US-China’s meeting in London. A good outcome could propel the Dollar, causing the Euro to retrace.
There’s a level of sellers at 1.14400, and buyers at 1.12400
I’d personally wait for deeper retracements on Dollar crosses before shorting DXY.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US-China relations improving today
- Hotter than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US-China relations worsening today
- Cooler than expected Inflation in the US tomorrow
- Alan
👍26❤6💯4
GOLD – Playing the patient game
Gold is trading in the middle of its current range with bearish price action. Sellers stepped in around $3,400, while buyers were active near $3,200. Trading Gold while it's in equilibrium is not something I’d consider.
Fundamentally, Gold has been reacting to tariff-related news. US tariffs affect countries globally, and Gold’s performance often reflects a risk-on or risk-off sentiment worldwide. Currently, tensions on the tariff front are easing. The US and China are meeting in London, and the outcome could impact safe haven assets like Gold.
In my opinion, I’d prefer to wait for Gold to retrace further before buying. There's likely some kind of risk-off catalyst on the horizon—but the timing is uncertain. Waiting for Gold to reach a discount level on a higher timeframe could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity.
Gold is trading in the middle of its current range with bearish price action. Sellers stepped in around $3,400, while buyers were active near $3,200. Trading Gold while it's in equilibrium is not something I’d consider.
Fundamentally, Gold has been reacting to tariff-related news. US tariffs affect countries globally, and Gold’s performance often reflects a risk-on or risk-off sentiment worldwide. Currently, tensions on the tariff front are easing. The US and China are meeting in London, and the outcome could impact safe haven assets like Gold.
In my opinion, I’d prefer to wait for Gold to retrace further before buying. There's likely some kind of risk-off catalyst on the horizon—but the timing is uncertain. Waiting for Gold to reach a discount level on a higher timeframe could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity.
🔥35👍9🫡4
EdgeFinder is showing a +6 reading, suggesting that upside may be the path of least resistance.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
US–China meeting ends poorly
US inflation prints hot
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
US–China meeting ends well
US inflation prints cool
– Alan
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
US–China meeting ends poorly
US inflation prints hot
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
US–China meeting ends well
US inflation prints cool
– Alan
👍18❤1
EdgeFinder CPI Chart - A glimpse before the print
Inflation in the US currently sits at 2.3%, just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A tick down in the upcoming print could strengthen the case for rate cuts later this year, potentially weakening the dollar as investors price in easier policy. On the other hand, a tick up may delay those expectations, supporting the dollar as the Fed holds firm on rates to keep inflation in check. Markets will be watching closely for any signal that shifts the Fed's timing.
- Alan
Inflation in the US currently sits at 2.3%, just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A tick down in the upcoming print could strengthen the case for rate cuts later this year, potentially weakening the dollar as investors price in easier policy. On the other hand, a tick up may delay those expectations, supporting the dollar as the Fed holds firm on rates to keep inflation in check. Markets will be watching closely for any signal that shifts the Fed's timing.
- Alan
❤36🔥13😁1
GBP/USD
The Pound has shown resilience against its peers. Last night it traded to the nearest level of support around 1.34580 and held nicely, indicating strong buyers are participating in pullbacks.
Last night, the UK saw it’s round of employment data. It was a miss. Pound traded down into that area of support, but buyers stepped in. Tomorrow, we get CPI for the US – a print everyone is paying attention to.
In my opinion, GBP is a great vehicle for participating in Dollar bearishness. Because the GBP is doing much better than the US regarding economic prints. Even if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expected and sends the Pound lower – I’m personally looking to fade any short-term Dollar appreciation.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Hot CPI print in US
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Cool CPI print in US
- Alan
The Pound has shown resilience against its peers. Last night it traded to the nearest level of support around 1.34580 and held nicely, indicating strong buyers are participating in pullbacks.
Last night, the UK saw it’s round of employment data. It was a miss. Pound traded down into that area of support, but buyers stepped in. Tomorrow, we get CPI for the US – a print everyone is paying attention to.
In my opinion, GBP is a great vehicle for participating in Dollar bearishness. Because the GBP is doing much better than the US regarding economic prints. Even if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expected and sends the Pound lower – I’m personally looking to fade any short-term Dollar appreciation.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Hot CPI print in US
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- Cool CPI print in US
- Alan
❤38👍6🙏1