EdgeFinder's Indices Scanner
The EdgeFinder’s NASDAQ scanner continues to flash a +7 Bullish score, supported by strong seasonality, trend momentum, and improving macro conditions. While short-term sentiment readings have softened slightly, the broader outlook remains positive.
Retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with nearly 90% of traders short — a strong contrarian indicator. Seasonality is favorable too, with a historical +2.53% average return in June.
Remaining US Data for this week:
Thursday: Jobless Claims & GDP
Friday: Consumer Spending, Core PCE Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
These releases could either reinforce the bullish trend or bring back volatility
In my opinion, while momentum favors bulls, chasing highs here is risky. Waiting for a pullback or clean support retest could offer better R:R
The EdgeFinder’s NASDAQ scanner continues to flash a +7 Bullish score, supported by strong seasonality, trend momentum, and improving macro conditions. While short-term sentiment readings have softened slightly, the broader outlook remains positive.
Retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with nearly 90% of traders short — a strong contrarian indicator. Seasonality is favorable too, with a historical +2.53% average return in June.
Remaining US Data for this week:
Thursday: Jobless Claims & GDP
Friday: Consumer Spending, Core PCE Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
These releases could either reinforce the bullish trend or bring back volatility
In my opinion, while momentum favors bulls, chasing highs here is risky. Waiting for a pullback or clean support retest could offer better R:R
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EUR/USD – 1.20000 Looks Closer and Closer
EUR/USD broke out above recent highs yesterday and is now trading near 1.17000. The pullback to the 1.14000 level was short-lived and quickly absorbed by strong buyers — suggesting momentum remains with the bulls.
Fundamentally, the Euro’s strength is being driven largely by broad-based Dollar weakness. Markets are increasingly pricing in the Fed’s first rate cut, with some speculation pointing to as early as July. That expectation has weighed on USD, boosting major counterparts like the Euro.
Looking ahead, US GDP and Jobless Claims are on deck this week. If GDP misses expectations or jobless claims tick higher, it could reinforce the case for a near-term rate cut — further pressuring the Dollar. On the flip side, a strong data beat could delay those expectations and stall EUR/USD’s rally.
In my opinion, if momentum holds and data aligns, a move toward 1.20000 is not off the table.
– Alan
EUR/USD broke out above recent highs yesterday and is now trading near 1.17000. The pullback to the 1.14000 level was short-lived and quickly absorbed by strong buyers — suggesting momentum remains with the bulls.
Fundamentally, the Euro’s strength is being driven largely by broad-based Dollar weakness. Markets are increasingly pricing in the Fed’s first rate cut, with some speculation pointing to as early as July. That expectation has weighed on USD, boosting major counterparts like the Euro.
Looking ahead, US GDP and Jobless Claims are on deck this week. If GDP misses expectations or jobless claims tick higher, it could reinforce the case for a near-term rate cut — further pressuring the Dollar. On the flip side, a strong data beat could delay those expectations and stall EUR/USD’s rally.
In my opinion, if momentum holds and data aligns, a move toward 1.20000 is not off the table.
– Alan
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US10Y – Reinforcing Dollar Weakness
The US 10-Year Yield is currently trading around 4.27%, comfortably below the 200 Day MA. This drop in yields supports the case for Fed easing, with below 4.5% levels often viewed as safe territory.
One of the main reasons rate cuts have been delayed is due to sticky yields. When long-term rates remain elevated, it becomes harder for the Fed to justify cutting — doing so while yields are rising risks signaling policy error. But with yields rolling over, the Fed may gain added confidence to proceed with cuts.
As of now, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If yields remain suppressed or drift even lower — those expectations may strengthen, further pressuring the Dollar.
– Alan
The US 10-Year Yield is currently trading around 4.27%, comfortably below the 200 Day MA. This drop in yields supports the case for Fed easing, with below 4.5% levels often viewed as safe territory.
One of the main reasons rate cuts have been delayed is due to sticky yields. When long-term rates remain elevated, it becomes harder for the Fed to justify cutting — doing so while yields are rising risks signaling policy error. But with yields rolling over, the Fed may gain added confidence to proceed with cuts.
As of now, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If yields remain suppressed or drift even lower — those expectations may strengthen, further pressuring the Dollar.
– Alan
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EdgeFinder's GDP Growth Chart
Up next is the US Final GDP QoQ and the GDP Price Index — two key metrics that could influence the Fed’s tone heading into the next policy meeting.
Looking at the EdgeFinder’s GDP tracker, we’ve seen mixed growth surprises over the past year. The most recent print came in at -0.20% vs. forecast of -0.30% — a small beat, but still a negative growth figure that adds to the slowdown narrative heading into Q2.
This modest upside wasn’t enough to shift sentiment in a major way, but it did reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to start easing. Markets are currently pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts.
In my opinion, this sets the tone heading into tomorrow’s Core PCE inflation release — which could solidify the rate cut timeline or push it further out depending on the outcome.
- Alan
Up next is the US Final GDP QoQ and the GDP Price Index — two key metrics that could influence the Fed’s tone heading into the next policy meeting.
Looking at the EdgeFinder’s GDP tracker, we’ve seen mixed growth surprises over the past year. The most recent print came in at -0.20% vs. forecast of -0.30% — a small beat, but still a negative growth figure that adds to the slowdown narrative heading into Q2.
This modest upside wasn’t enough to shift sentiment in a major way, but it did reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to start easing. Markets are currently pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts.
In my opinion, this sets the tone heading into tomorrow’s Core PCE inflation release — which could solidify the rate cut timeline or push it further out depending on the outcome.
- Alan
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GOLD – Pullback Continues
Gold has been pulling back steadily since June 16th, and now sits at a key bullish trendline that’s held up over the past several months. With price edging closer to the $3,200 support level, the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead.
Fundamentally, the landscape has shifted. Israel-Iran tensions have cooled, Trump signed a trade deal with China, and the Fed remains in a neutral-to-mixed stance. With many geopolitical and policy uncertainties fading, safe haven demand for Gold has softened — contributing to the recent downtrend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Further easing in global tensions
- Strong US data boosts rate hike odds and suppresses demand for Gold
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Surprise escalation in the Middle East or elsewhere
- Weaker economic data reignites demand for safe haven assets
– Alan
Gold has been pulling back steadily since June 16th, and now sits at a key bullish trendline that’s held up over the past several months. With price edging closer to the $3,200 support level, the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead.
Fundamentally, the landscape has shifted. Israel-Iran tensions have cooled, Trump signed a trade deal with China, and the Fed remains in a neutral-to-mixed stance. With many geopolitical and policy uncertainties fading, safe haven demand for Gold has softened — contributing to the recent downtrend.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Further easing in global tensions
- Strong US data boosts rate hike odds and suppresses demand for Gold
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Surprise escalation in the Middle East or elsewhere
- Weaker economic data reignites demand for safe haven assets
– Alan
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AUD/USD – What a Week for Risk-On!
The Australian Dollar just posted four straight green days — with today’s candle still TBD. AUD, a classic risk-on currency, has been riding the wave of bullish sentiment in global markets. Price is now up against a key resistance level at 0.65500, with the next resistance at 0.67000 and nearby support down at 0.64000.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions, steady equity strength, and a cooling Dollar all contributed to the AUD’s upside. While price action was choppy earlier in the month, this week’s price action has cleaned up.
On the institutional side, last week’s COT report showed NZD with a strong +24.54% net change, while AUD came in weaker at -1.39%. I’ll be watching this Friday’s filing to see if AUD positioning catches up. Historically, AUD tends to performs in risk-on and underperform when risk-off flows dominate.
If 0.65500 gives way, we may be headed toward a test of 0.67000 — but a stall here could offer a pullback opportunity for bulls.
– Alan
The Australian Dollar just posted four straight green days — with today’s candle still TBD. AUD, a classic risk-on currency, has been riding the wave of bullish sentiment in global markets. Price is now up against a key resistance level at 0.65500, with the next resistance at 0.67000 and nearby support down at 0.64000.
Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions, steady equity strength, and a cooling Dollar all contributed to the AUD’s upside. While price action was choppy earlier in the month, this week’s price action has cleaned up.
On the institutional side, last week’s COT report showed NZD with a strong +24.54% net change, while AUD came in weaker at -1.39%. I’ll be watching this Friday’s filing to see if AUD positioning catches up. Historically, AUD tends to performs in risk-on and underperform when risk-off flows dominate.
If 0.65500 gives way, we may be headed toward a test of 0.67000 — but a stall here could offer a pullback opportunity for bulls.
– Alan
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EdgeFinder’s Seasonality Scanner – How History Can Help Your Edge
Ever wonder how seasonality could affect your trades?
In stable or low-volatility market environments, seasonality can be a powerful confluence tool. By analyzing how assets tend to perform during certain months over a 10-year average, we can better time entries, exits, or bias shifts — especially when paired with technicals and fundamentals.
Let’s look at the NASDAQ as an example:
Historically, summer is a strong period for equities:
- May: +2.13%
- June: +2.59%
- July: +3.12%
- August: +2.26%
Why? Typically, inflation and rate decisions are more predictable mid-year, earnings season can provide bullish catalysts, and risk sentiment often leans positive unless disrupted by major macro events.
Of course, seasonality isn’t a guarantee — but in calm markets, it can offer an extra layer of conviction.
Use seasonality with EdgeFinder's trend bias, COT data, and retail sentiment for well-rounded trade setups.
Ever wonder how seasonality could affect your trades?
In stable or low-volatility market environments, seasonality can be a powerful confluence tool. By analyzing how assets tend to perform during certain months over a 10-year average, we can better time entries, exits, or bias shifts — especially when paired with technicals and fundamentals.
Let’s look at the NASDAQ as an example:
Historically, summer is a strong period for equities:
- May: +2.13%
- June: +2.59%
- July: +3.12%
- August: +2.26%
Why? Typically, inflation and rate decisions are more predictable mid-year, earnings season can provide bullish catalysts, and risk sentiment often leans positive unless disrupted by major macro events.
Of course, seasonality isn’t a guarantee — but in calm markets, it can offer an extra layer of conviction.
Use seasonality with EdgeFinder's trend bias, COT data, and retail sentiment for well-rounded trade setups.
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USD/CAD – Crossroads
Last Friday, the Canadian Dollar surged 80+ pips in under an hour after Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada over the Digital Services Tax — a flashback to earlier this year, when headlines repeatedly drove pops on USD/CAD. Now, USD/CAD is trading near a key level of support and a long-standing bullish trendline — a pivotal technical area as both currencies digest fresh developments.
Fundamentally, the issue with Canada has reportedly been resolved, and trade negotiations are said to be back on track. At the same time, the US 10-Year Yield continues to drift lower, reinforcing the Dollar’s bearish tone as traders add to rate cut bets.
In my opinion, this pair is at a true crossroads. With a stacked calendar ahead, we may not get clarity until later in the week:
- Tuesday: JOLTs, ISM Manufacturing (US)
- Thursday: CAD Balance of Trade, US ISM Services, US Unemployment, NFP
- Alan
Last Friday, the Canadian Dollar surged 80+ pips in under an hour after Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada over the Digital Services Tax — a flashback to earlier this year, when headlines repeatedly drove pops on USD/CAD. Now, USD/CAD is trading near a key level of support and a long-standing bullish trendline — a pivotal technical area as both currencies digest fresh developments.
Fundamentally, the issue with Canada has reportedly been resolved, and trade negotiations are said to be back on track. At the same time, the US 10-Year Yield continues to drift lower, reinforcing the Dollar’s bearish tone as traders add to rate cut bets.
In my opinion, this pair is at a true crossroads. With a stacked calendar ahead, we may not get clarity until later in the week:
- Tuesday: JOLTs, ISM Manufacturing (US)
- Thursday: CAD Balance of Trade, US ISM Services, US Unemployment, NFP
- Alan
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US10Y – Decline Continues
The US 10-Year Yield continues to drift lower, now trading around 4.25%, roughly 3% off last week’s levels. This steady decline has been a key driver for risk-on sentiment and Dollar weakness, as traders increase bets on rate cuts
However, the bulk of cuts may already be priced in — with markets expecting roughly 62 basis points of easing by year-end. As we approach peak dovish expectations, yields may begin to stabilize or even reverse if data surprises to the upside.
In my opinion, yields are falling for the right reasons — softening macro, easing inflation, and uncertainty easing. But any upside surprise in jobs or inflation could spark a quick repricing
– Alan
The US 10-Year Yield continues to drift lower, now trading around 4.25%, roughly 3% off last week’s levels. This steady decline has been a key driver for risk-on sentiment and Dollar weakness, as traders increase bets on rate cuts
However, the bulk of cuts may already be priced in — with markets expecting roughly 62 basis points of easing by year-end. As we approach peak dovish expectations, yields may begin to stabilize or even reverse if data surprises to the upside.
In my opinion, yields are falling for the right reasons — softening macro, easing inflation, and uncertainty easing. But any upside surprise in jobs or inflation could spark a quick repricing
– Alan
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EdgeFinder's Retail Sentiment – Quick Glance
Retail traders are once again heavily skewed — and that’s where contrarian opportunity starts to take shape.
The EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment Scanner shows extreme crowding on several pairs and indices.
Remember: sentiment isn’t a timing tool, but in a strong trend, it can be an added layer of conviction.
📈Overcrowded Longs:
USD/CHF – 92% long
USD/CAD – 60% long
USOIL – 78.67% long
DOW – 73.71% long
SPX500 – 70% long
📉Overcrowded Shorts:
EUR/USD – 79% short
RUSSELL – 83.69% short
NASDAQ – 88.46% short
NIKKEI – 100% short
Retail traders are once again heavily skewed — and that’s where contrarian opportunity starts to take shape.
The EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment Scanner shows extreme crowding on several pairs and indices.
Remember: sentiment isn’t a timing tool, but in a strong trend, it can be an added layer of conviction.
📈Overcrowded Longs:
USD/CHF – 92% long
USD/CAD – 60% long
USOIL – 78.67% long
DOW – 73.71% long
SPX500 – 70% long
📉Overcrowded Shorts:
EUR/USD – 79% short
RUSSELL – 83.69% short
NASDAQ – 88.46% short
NIKKEI – 100% short
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DXY – 14 Year Trendline
The US Dollar is now testing a 14-year bullish trendline — a long-term support level that many bears have had their eye on during the recent Dollar selloff.
Fundamentally, the Dollar’s decline accelerated after the April 2nd tariff announcement, which triggered capital outflows and sent money into other currencies and safe-haven assets. Add in a Fed with data supporting a cut and a string of underwhelming US data, and you get the sharp drop.
In my opinion, big levels like this can be noisy. Price often wicks around key trendlines before making its true move. Waiting for clean follow-through — especially on a weekly close — is the smarter play here.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- A confirmed breakdown below the trendline could shift long-term structure
- Softer US data or dovish Fed rhetoric accelerates selling
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Strong rebound from support zone sparks squeeze
- US data surprises to the upside, delaying cuts and lifting yields
– Alan
The US Dollar is now testing a 14-year bullish trendline — a long-term support level that many bears have had their eye on during the recent Dollar selloff.
Fundamentally, the Dollar’s decline accelerated after the April 2nd tariff announcement, which triggered capital outflows and sent money into other currencies and safe-haven assets. Add in a Fed with data supporting a cut and a string of underwhelming US data, and you get the sharp drop.
In my opinion, big levels like this can be noisy. Price often wicks around key trendlines before making its true move. Waiting for clean follow-through — especially on a weekly close — is the smarter play here.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- A confirmed breakdown below the trendline could shift long-term structure
- Softer US data or dovish Fed rhetoric accelerates selling
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Strong rebound from support zone sparks squeeze
- US data surprises to the upside, delaying cuts and lifting yields
– Alan
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