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GOLD – Cooling Off in the Middle East
Gold is currently sitting at a key level of resistance. A break and retest of this level could signal further upside, while a failure to break may suggest fading tensions.
Gold’s recent rally was driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. If tensions escalate, gold is likely to rally. If we see de-escalation, gold may pull back. Currently, safe havens are underperforming ahead of the market open, and I’m watching to see if we get continuation.
It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time these two countries have clashed, which may explain the muted reaction. However, if other nations get involved, we could see another risk-off spike.
– Alan
Gold is currently sitting at a key level of resistance. A break and retest of this level could signal further upside, while a failure to break may suggest fading tensions.
Gold’s recent rally was driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. If tensions escalate, gold is likely to rally. If we see de-escalation, gold may pull back. Currently, safe havens are underperforming ahead of the market open, and I’m watching to see if we get continuation.
It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time these two countries have clashed, which may explain the muted reaction. However, if other nations get involved, we could see another risk-off spike.
– Alan
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USOIL – Double Top or Pullback going higher?
OIL rallied massively Thursday night when the initial strikes took place in the Middle East. Topping out 12. Now – price is retracing the move potentially all the way down to the 200 Day MA.
OIL was a great breakout trade excluding the Israel-Iran conflict.
We had multiple fundamental confluences like: seasonal demand, Russia-Ukraine, COT buying, and technical confluences. The Israel-Iran was added fuel to the fire.
In my opinion, we could potentially pull back and get a buying opportunity. The most recent high on OIL could be a ceiling for future upside
- Alan
OIL rallied massively Thursday night when the initial strikes took place in the Middle East. Topping out 12. Now – price is retracing the move potentially all the way down to the 200 Day MA.
OIL was a great breakout trade excluding the Israel-Iran conflict.
We had multiple fundamental confluences like: seasonal demand, Russia-Ukraine, COT buying, and technical confluences. The Israel-Iran was added fuel to the fire.
In my opinion, we could potentially pull back and get a buying opportunity. The most recent high on OIL could be a ceiling for future upside
- Alan
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EdgeFinder's Risk On / Risk Off Gauge
Last Friday, the gauge showed us we are in risk-off trading. Since, traders are calling bluff on the Israel-Iran conflict for now. That's displayed by falling oil prices, falling VIX, and falling Gold. On the contrary - Risk assets are rising again.
For most assets - all major moves that occurred on Thursday/Friday have been retraced. Despite the bombshell headlines over the weekend, the reaction was short-lived.
We can keep an eye on the VIX and safe haven flows to see if things shift. Safe trading!
- Alan
Last Friday, the gauge showed us we are in risk-off trading. Since, traders are calling bluff on the Israel-Iran conflict for now. That's displayed by falling oil prices, falling VIX, and falling Gold. On the contrary - Risk assets are rising again.
For most assets - all major moves that occurred on Thursday/Friday have been retraced. Despite the bombshell headlines over the weekend, the reaction was short-lived.
We can keep an eye on the VIX and safe haven flows to see if things shift. Safe trading!
- Alan
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AI-Generated Trade Setups 🤖
The EdgeFinder automatically sources and evaluates a wide range of market data, such as the COT report, economic figures, central bank forecasts, and more. Using an advanced trading AI, the EdgeFinder then assigns a bullish or bearish reading to your favorite currency pairs, indices, and gold!
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The EdgeFinder automatically sources and evaluates a wide range of market data, such as the COT report, economic figures, central bank forecasts, and more. Using an advanced trading AI, the EdgeFinder then assigns a bullish or bearish reading to your favorite currency pairs, indices, and gold!
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USDJPY – A choppy chart seeking direction
Technically USD/JPY has been sideways in a tight range for a month – currently sitting at the upper band of the range. USD/JPY rallied initially off Israel-Iran conflict, as USD regained its traditional safe haven status. Now – the pair is sitting flat at a level of resistance.
Fundamentally the Israel-Iran situation is a revisit of last years events. It seems like the follow-through has stalled for the time being. Also, US saw a contracting retail sales print this morning.
In my opinion, I’d like to wait for the Fed meeting and central bank actions this week from: BoE, BoJ, SNB, and Fed all making moves this week.
I’d like to react after the data and target previous HTF support at 140 if the opportunity presents.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Neutral-Calm narrative for Israel-Iran
- Neutral-Dovish Fed meeting
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- “no going back” narrative in Israel-Iran conflict
- Hawkish Fed
- Alan
Technically USD/JPY has been sideways in a tight range for a month – currently sitting at the upper band of the range. USD/JPY rallied initially off Israel-Iran conflict, as USD regained its traditional safe haven status. Now – the pair is sitting flat at a level of resistance.
Fundamentally the Israel-Iran situation is a revisit of last years events. It seems like the follow-through has stalled for the time being. Also, US saw a contracting retail sales print this morning.
In my opinion, I’d like to wait for the Fed meeting and central bank actions this week from: BoE, BoJ, SNB, and Fed all making moves this week.
I’d like to react after the data and target previous HTF support at 140 if the opportunity presents.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Neutral-Calm narrative for Israel-Iran
- Neutral-Dovish Fed meeting
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- “no going back” narrative in Israel-Iran conflict
- Hawkish Fed
- Alan
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USDCAD – A steep downtrend
Technically USD/CAD has been on a downward trajectory for some time. Like USDJPY, it’s approaching a big level support at around 1.34000 give or take. Hitting that level is probable given the overall Dollar trend.
Fundamentally the Israel-Iran situation dropped USDCAD as the CAD appreciated due to rising oil prices. CAD and OIL have a correlation to some degree. Stable/Uplifted oil prices could continue to give the CAD some strength.
In my opinion, I’d like to wait for after the Fed meeting and central bank actions this week. Also monitoring oil prices. If the Dollar gets a short-lived rally – there could be an opportunity to short into support.
I’m going to wait until all the upcoming data supports this
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Neutral-Calm narrative for Israel-Iran
- Neutral-Dovish Fed meeting
- Plummeting oil prices
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- “no going back” narrative in Israel-Iran conflict
- Hawkish Fed
- Rising oil prices
- Alan
Technically USD/CAD has been on a downward trajectory for some time. Like USDJPY, it’s approaching a big level support at around 1.34000 give or take. Hitting that level is probable given the overall Dollar trend.
Fundamentally the Israel-Iran situation dropped USDCAD as the CAD appreciated due to rising oil prices. CAD and OIL have a correlation to some degree. Stable/Uplifted oil prices could continue to give the CAD some strength.
In my opinion, I’d like to wait for after the Fed meeting and central bank actions this week. Also monitoring oil prices. If the Dollar gets a short-lived rally – there could be an opportunity to short into support.
I’m going to wait until all the upcoming data supports this
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Neutral-Calm narrative for Israel-Iran
- Neutral-Dovish Fed meeting
- Plummeting oil prices
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- “no going back” narrative in Israel-Iran conflict
- Hawkish Fed
- Rising oil prices
- Alan
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US Retail Sales – Consumers Pulling Back?
Retail Sales MoM came in at -0.9% vs. -0.6% forecast — a clear miss.
This confirms a short-term narrative: the consumer is starting to tighten up. Whether it’s due to higher borrowing costs, sticky inflation, or a cooling labor market — this data point suggests people are spending less. Not ideal if you're betting on continued economic resilience.
Markets are taking this as a signal that the Fed could stay dovish, or at the very least, avoid hawkish surprises. A weaker consumer generally weakens the Dollar, especially if more data confirms this trend.
I’m staying patient ahead of more Fed speak and jobless claims later this week before making any moves. Safe trading everyone!
- Alan
Retail Sales MoM came in at -0.9% vs. -0.6% forecast — a clear miss.
This confirms a short-term narrative: the consumer is starting to tighten up. Whether it’s due to higher borrowing costs, sticky inflation, or a cooling labor market — this data point suggests people are spending less. Not ideal if you're betting on continued economic resilience.
Markets are taking this as a signal that the Fed could stay dovish, or at the very least, avoid hawkish surprises. A weaker consumer generally weakens the Dollar, especially if more data confirms this trend.
I’m staying patient ahead of more Fed speak and jobless claims later this week before making any moves. Safe trading everyone!
- Alan
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DXY – At a Decision Point
The Dollar is hovering near a downward trendline that dates back to February 2nd. Sitting right on that trendline is the 50-Day Moving Average. Price action has stalled for now, just ahead of a major news day in the US. Holding below the trendline could signal continued bearish momentum, while a break above might hint at a short-term rally.
US jobless claims came in as expected. Later today, the Fed is set to announce its rate decision, which is widely anticipated to remain unchanged. The market will also be closely watching the FOMC press conference, with particular attention on the Fed's tone.
In my opinion, I’ll be watching out for potential fakeouts and instead waiting for a clear continuation in either direction.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- A dovish Fed
- The US staying out of the Israel-Iran conflict
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- A hawkish Fed, or signals that rates will be held higher for longer
- The US stepping into the Israel-Iran conflict
– Alan
The Dollar is hovering near a downward trendline that dates back to February 2nd. Sitting right on that trendline is the 50-Day Moving Average. Price action has stalled for now, just ahead of a major news day in the US. Holding below the trendline could signal continued bearish momentum, while a break above might hint at a short-term rally.
US jobless claims came in as expected. Later today, the Fed is set to announce its rate decision, which is widely anticipated to remain unchanged. The market will also be closely watching the FOMC press conference, with particular attention on the Fed's tone.
In my opinion, I’ll be watching out for potential fakeouts and instead waiting for a clear continuation in either direction.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- A dovish Fed
- The US staying out of the Israel-Iran conflict
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- A hawkish Fed, or signals that rates will be held higher for longer
- The US stepping into the Israel-Iran conflict
– Alan
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VIX – Volatility on Watch
The VIX, often used as a gauge for market fear or volatility, is currently sitting near levels last seen during the Israel-Iran spike. Elevated VIX readings typically point to investor uncertainty and risk-off sentiment - often leading to pullbacks in equities, rotation into safe havens, or increased market choppiness.
If the VIX breaks out higher, it could be a signal that fear is ramping up again. This might trigger more selling pressure across risk assets, and possibly strengthen defensive sectors or assets like Gold, CHF, JPY, or the Dollar.
On the other hand, if the VIX fades lower, it could suggest that fear is cooling off and investors are leaning back into risk. This might support equities and risk-on plays - but could also mean markets get a little too comfortable, too quickly.
In my opinion, it's important to watch how price reacts around this zone. A clear move in either direction could offer valuable insight into short-term sentiment.
- Alan
The VIX, often used as a gauge for market fear or volatility, is currently sitting near levels last seen during the Israel-Iran spike. Elevated VIX readings typically point to investor uncertainty and risk-off sentiment - often leading to pullbacks in equities, rotation into safe havens, or increased market choppiness.
If the VIX breaks out higher, it could be a signal that fear is ramping up again. This might trigger more selling pressure across risk assets, and possibly strengthen defensive sectors or assets like Gold, CHF, JPY, or the Dollar.
On the other hand, if the VIX fades lower, it could suggest that fear is cooling off and investors are leaning back into risk. This might support equities and risk-on plays - but could also mean markets get a little too comfortable, too quickly.
In my opinion, it's important to watch how price reacts around this zone. A clear move in either direction could offer valuable insight into short-term sentiment.
- Alan
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US Economic Heatmap - Leading up to FOMC
A mixed picture. Retail Sales MoM missed expectations, suggesting softer consumer demand heading into the summer. Both Manufacturing and Services PMIs also came in weak, reinforcing concerns that growth may be stalling. While NFP and wage growth surprised to the upside, forward-looking data like ADP and MBA Mortgage Apps (-15.1%) show clear signs of cooling across employment and housing.
Fresh Fed commentary just dropped, they now project higher inflation and slightly weaker growth than it did back in March. Their PCE estimate for year-end was raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while unemployment is expected to climb slightly to 4.5%. Despite this, they still see the economy expanding at a solid pace and labor conditions remaining firm. Rate cut expectations for September jumped from 60% to 71%, and the market is still pricing in two cuts for 2025.
In my opinion, this is a setup where the Fed is laying the groundwork for easing without spooking the market.
- Alan
A mixed picture. Retail Sales MoM missed expectations, suggesting softer consumer demand heading into the summer. Both Manufacturing and Services PMIs also came in weak, reinforcing concerns that growth may be stalling. While NFP and wage growth surprised to the upside, forward-looking data like ADP and MBA Mortgage Apps (-15.1%) show clear signs of cooling across employment and housing.
Fresh Fed commentary just dropped, they now project higher inflation and slightly weaker growth than it did back in March. Their PCE estimate for year-end was raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while unemployment is expected to climb slightly to 4.5%. Despite this, they still see the economy expanding at a solid pace and labor conditions remaining firm. Rate cut expectations for September jumped from 60% to 71%, and the market is still pricing in two cuts for 2025.
In my opinion, this is a setup where the Fed is laying the groundwork for easing without spooking the market.
- Alan
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⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Miss in German PPI
- Decline in French Business Climate
- Decline in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- U.S. does not get involved in war
- Beat in German PPI
- Beat in French Business Climate
- Beat in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
– Alan
- Miss in German PPI
- Decline in French Business Climate
- Decline in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- U.S. does not get involved in war
- Beat in German PPI
- Beat in French Business Climate
- Beat in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
– Alan
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EUR/USD – Continued Slide or Dip?
Euro, along with other dollar counterparts, gave back gains after yesterday’s FOMC and rising questions on whether the US will step in to fight in the Iran-Israel war. Most of the losses were tied to dollar appreciation rather than euro weakness.
Fundamentally, recent developments have strengthened the USD for now. Fed Chair Powell mentioned it may be best to hold rates, Trump has been vocal about his support for Israel, inflation concerns remain “sticky,” and Norway delivered its first surprise rate cut yesterday.
In my opinion, the euro is at a decision point that could go either way. If the slide continues, nearest support lies at 1.14000. If we break and hold above the downward trendline and key support level, nearest resistance lies at 1.16000.
Euro, along with other dollar counterparts, gave back gains after yesterday’s FOMC and rising questions on whether the US will step in to fight in the Iran-Israel war. Most of the losses were tied to dollar appreciation rather than euro weakness.
Fundamentally, recent developments have strengthened the USD for now. Fed Chair Powell mentioned it may be best to hold rates, Trump has been vocal about his support for Israel, inflation concerns remain “sticky,” and Norway delivered its first surprise rate cut yesterday.
In my opinion, the euro is at a decision point that could go either way. If the slide continues, nearest support lies at 1.14000. If we break and hold above the downward trendline and key support level, nearest resistance lies at 1.16000.
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NZD/USD – A Textbookl Descent
Similar to the euro and other dollar counterparts, the NZD saw a decline due to dollar strength. It broke through a key level of support, slipped below the 50 Day MA, and fell beneath its upward trendline.
The same fundamental variables weighed on the NZD. In addition, both NZD and AUD are considered risk-on currencies. The unanswered question of whether the US will step in to aid Israel added fuel to the NZD’s decline. In times of geopolitical tension, money tends to pivot from risk-on to risk-off assets.
In my opinion, the NZD could find its way to the nearest support and 200 Day MA at 0.58600 if conditions remain the same. On the contrary, if the US stays out of the conflict and investors regain a risk-on appetite, this could be a fakeout—causing the NZD to revisit recent highs.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US involvement in war
- Safe haven appetite
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US does not get involved in war
- Return of risk-on appetite
Similar to the euro and other dollar counterparts, the NZD saw a decline due to dollar strength. It broke through a key level of support, slipped below the 50 Day MA, and fell beneath its upward trendline.
The same fundamental variables weighed on the NZD. In addition, both NZD and AUD are considered risk-on currencies. The unanswered question of whether the US will step in to aid Israel added fuel to the NZD’s decline. In times of geopolitical tension, money tends to pivot from risk-on to risk-off assets.
In my opinion, the NZD could find its way to the nearest support and 200 Day MA at 0.58600 if conditions remain the same. On the contrary, if the US stays out of the conflict and investors regain a risk-on appetite, this could be a fakeout—causing the NZD to revisit recent highs.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US involvement in war
- Safe haven appetite
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US does not get involved in war
- Return of risk-on appetite
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